I absolutely love today’s slate of college baseball action. I dropped a five-pick round robin in our 2024 college baseball season preview (Go Aggies!).
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Friday, April 19
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Friday, April 19
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats
LSU: +110 | TENN: -150
Game Time: 6:30 pm. ET
Where: Lexington, Ky.
Odds via BetMGM
The No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers will visit the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats to kick off a three-game weekend series. In Game 1, Tennessee is expected to start LHP Chris Stamos, while Kentucky is expected to start RHP Trey Pooser. Both pitchers are graduate transfers. Stamos owns a 3.45 RA9 through one start and 15.2 innings while Pooser sports a 4.37 across four starts and 35 innings.
The Wildcats have gotten a lot out of their pitching staff this season, and they’ll need to get plenty today to make up for Tennessee’s advantage behind the plate. Kentucky sports a solid .926 OPS, but that’s far less impressive than Tennessee’s dominant 1.106 that leads the NCAA. The Vols are tied for the most doubles (100) and lead in home runs (101). The Wildcats rank 38th in doubles (79) and 64th in home runs (51).
Tennessee’s game-breaking offense should plate enough runs even if Stamos can’t stay hot. The veteran’s impressive 3.45 RA9 and 0.957 WHIP are likely unsustainable — he recorded a 7.48 RA9 (but 5.82 ERA) and 1.569 WHIP at Cal last year, after all — but I’m content to ride the hot hand. Tennessee narrowly edges Kentucky in team pitching metrics with a 4.24 RA9 to Kentucky’s 4.49 and a 1.425 WHIP to Kentucky’s 1.435.
Tennessee may rank only seventh in the RPI, which, while impressive, trails second-ranked Kentucky. The Vols are only 3-4 versus top-25 teams while Kentucky is 6-0, but some crucial context is missing from that equation: Kentucky’s record stems from two home series sweeps versus Georgia and Alabama. Tennessee went 2-1 at home versus Georgia (despite missing star slugger Billy Amick), 1-2 on the road versus Alabama and dropped a neutral-site game to Oklahoma. The Vols weren’t starting Stamos on Friday in any of those series, so if he can stay hot, the Vols should clear.
College Baseball Pick Today: Tennessee ML -125 at DraftKings
Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears
KAN: -120 | BAY: -110
Game Time: 7:30 pm. ET
Where: Waco, Tex.
Odds via BetMGM
The Baylor Bears have been one of my favorite fades of the season, and at 17-18, we’ve been able to pick on them for plenty of losing efforts. They now draw a 19-14 Kansas team, and while they’ll benefit from home-field advantage, they don’t have much else going for them. Kansas leads in team RA9 (5.66 to 6.63), team WHIP (1.519 to 1.662) and team OPS (.917 to .788).
It’s Baylor’s impotent offense that truly makes them a fade. Their team OPS ranks 197th in the NCAA. Their 27 home runs ranks tied for 220th. The Bears are scoring just 6.3 runs per game, a number that would be much lower if not for weekend series against Incarnate Word (29 runs scored) and a terrible Oral Roberts team (21 runs scored). Without those series, their runs per game average would dip to 5.9. Kansas is scoring 7.8 runs per game.
Kansas edges Baylor in the RPI, 92nd to 112th. That gap may feel close, but Kansas is 12-2 against teams ranked outside the top-100 while Baylor is 3-9 against teams ranked between 51st and 100th. We’re getting Kansas at just DraftKings.
College Baseball Pick Today: Kansas ML -120 at BetMGM
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