We are two games away from the actual start of the NBA Playoffs. For now, it’s two more play-in games with the loser going home. The Miami Heat are banged up, down Jimmy Butler but still hopeful to knock off the Chicago Bulls. Out west, the Kings have new life as they try to advance past the host Pelicans — missing Zion Williamson. Despite just two games the value is there, especially when building a DraftKings Pick6 slip. Here are the top plays for Friday night, April 19!
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Here’s the lowdown on DraftKings Pick6: It is meant to mirror most pick’em sites, allowing you to build a two- to six-leg entry with larger payouts for more correct choices. However, the new product is peer-to-peer, meaning the strategy lies in beating other players in pre-selected tournaments rather than beating the house, making it important to be contrarian!
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DraftKings Pick6 Predictions Today — NBA Slate
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De’Aaron Fox M/L Than 6.5 Assists
This has been a source of recent success for us, going less than the posted assist total. While Fox will have the ball plenty against New Orleans, the type of production he provides is the real focus. He’s been consistently at or below this number over the final stretch of the year, finishing with 6 dimes most recently against the Warriors. He has 21 total assists in five games this year against the Pelicans, hitting more than 6.5 just once.
This is a proven tough matchup against the Pelicans for Fox to navigate the assists market. There’s a decent break here against the market price thanks to the OddsShopper Pick’em tool. We see implied odds at Pick6 of -136 versus the -144 market price. That’s a 2.5% EV edge that’s always worthy of attacking and helps provide us long-term profit.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: De’Aaron Fox LESS Than 6.5 Assists
DeMar DeRozan M/L Than 27.5 Points
This is not the easiest number for DeMar DeRozan to reach against this Miami Heat team. While DeRozan may have ended the regular season on a scoring tear, it’s not what we’ve seen against Miami by any means. We know the Heat are running a defensive zone trying to take away slashing and post scoring. They make it tough on the perimeter for anyone trying to create space, ultimately areas where DeRozan has struggled against the Heat.
DeRozan has failed to top 27 points in each of the four games against tonight’s opponent. The lack of Jimmy Butler on defense shouldn’t detract Pick6 players from still seeking to fade DeRozan’s points total. With implied odds of -136, we still get a small edge against the -138 true odds. The matchup, history and price all work in our favor, so we play less than 27.5 points.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: DeMar DeRozan LESS Than 27.5 Points
Domantas Sabonis M/L Than 13.5 Rebounds
It’s not easy for many players to clear 14 rebounds in any game, let alone a “playoff” game. Sabonis has a tremendous break ahead as the Pelicans will be without their best player. A ton of pressure now falls on the shoulders of Jonas Valanciunas to keep Sabonis off the glass. Past history is far from an indicative measure here because whatever New Orleans did with Williamson on the floor is now moot.
The two teams just played a week ago, where Sabonis was limited to just 10 boards. But without a pivotal piece in the front court, the Pelicans stand the risk of watching Sabonis clean everything off the glass — at least maximizing the time on the floor with rebounds. The two things working against Sabonis clearing this total are foul trouble and a blowout. With those being far fewer probabilities than the Kings being in a closer game, it’s worth the more play here.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Domantas Sabonis MORE Than 13.5 Rebounds
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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