We slide into what could be the last game of this year’s NBA Finals fresh off our Game 3 victory. Let’s run it back with another 3x winner from Underdog as the Mavericks have every part of their back, rear and head against the wall. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving haven’t been able to overcome Jaylen Brown and a revived Jayson Tatum. Too much help on Boston’s side has been the difference. We found some great value with the help of OddsShopper’s NBA pick’em tool, so here are the top NBA Underdog pick’em predictions of the night.
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Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
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Luka Doncic H/L Than 9.5 Rebounds
This series is taking its toll on Luka Doncic, and that has been no more evident than it was in Game 3. Despite Dallas walking back that lead, Doncic looks gassed. The Celtics are relentless on defense and refuse to do anything other than bomb 3’s. It’s impacting the other main stat markets for Doncic, not just limiting him to less than 50 points. The Celtics didn’t do anything new in Game 3; they just reached the wear down point for Doncic — still dealing with injury on top of the Boston defense. It is hard to imagine Doncic getting back to that 10-rebound game, whether he falls short because of injury or fatigue.
Doncic got the Celtics for double-digit rebounds in both regular season games, followed up by the first two games of the NBA Finals. It’s just further evidence of a guy wearing down on the floor and the incredible defensive effort the Celtics continue to put forth. While we expect him to be a full go, Doncic is still listed as probable tonight with the thoracic contusion. He’d be live for a lower play with the injury alone, but adding the opponent and timing of this game puts us over the top.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Luka Doncic Lower Than 9.5 Rebounds
Dereck Lively II H/L Than 8.5 Points
After two mostly silent games, Dereck Lively II broke out with 11 points in Game 3. Far from any true awakening or jump in performance, I’m willing to chalk that one up as an outlier. His six shot attempts were the most from Lively since Game 2 against Minnesota, and he’s been effectively taken out of this series with the Celtics stretching the floor.
The primary difference between Games 1 and 2 versus the last game was the lack of Kristaps Porzingis, but Dallas is also desperate and facing elimination. Even if Porzingis finds his way out once again, it shouldn’t translate to Dallas pounding the rock to Lively. The top tandem of Irving and Doncic need help but preferably from other sources like P.J. Washington — mainly keeping up with Boston’s 3-point barrage.
Even the smallest of edges remains +EV and translates to profit over time. Thanks to OddsShopper’s NBA pick’em tool, we gain a small edge with the -122 lower play beating the -123 true odds.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Derrick Lively II Lower Than 8.5 Points
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