Ugh. We went 0-2 yesterday, losing a Roddery Munoz under by a strikeout, while Christopher Morel couldn’t even get a hit for us. Frustrating, but we move on. Tonight’s slate offers a bunch of pumpkins, and I’m excited about getting some action down. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, June 14. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, June 14
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Chris Flexen
The Chicago White Sox are on the road to visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and while it was a slow start for the reigning NL Champions, they may be starting to build some momentum. I feel comfortable putting some faith in them — well, at least in their ability to avoid strikeouts — on tonight’s slate.
The D-backs rank ninth in strikeouts taken per game on the year (7.9), and they’ve hardly taken any over their last three (5.7). They’re actually the MLB’s third-best team in avoiding strikeouts at home (7.2), too, which corresponds to Chase Field ranking second-worst in park factors for strikeouts this year.
The White Sox will start RHP Chris Flexen, who isn’t a good pitcher, let alone a good strikeout pitcher. He sports a 4.41 xERA (29th percentile) and 18.2% strikeout rate (24th). It doesn’t help him that Arizona ranks 10th in strikeout rate against righties (21.2%) and second in strikeout rate against righties at home (18.7%).
Flexen’s strikeout prop is trading at a relatively low 3.5, a number he has cleared in a majority of his starts. The under is trading between +100 and -125 at most public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it at -140. Unsurprisingly, the market-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In this example, the true odds of Flexen staying under 3.5 strikeouts are estimated to be -106, edging out the price available at FanDuel.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Over a 1,066-bet sample of strikeout props with an OS Rating of 2 or more found two hours before game start, 603 were winners. That hit rate yielded an 11.6% ROI. At FanDuel, 88 of 147 bets were winners, good for an 18.3% ROI. That’s the only book where this wager is trading with +EV, so don’t waste your money buying it elsewhere.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Chris Flexen total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays are broken. At 33-35, they’re 14.5 games out of the AL East lead and 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot. Their lineup, which recorded a solid .324 wOBA (and .325 xwOBA) last year, owns a .300 wOBA (.314 xwOBA) thus far. But we’re backing them and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. regardless of those issues because this is an absolute smash spot.
For one, Guerrero remains an elite batter. His .444 SLG from last year is down to .408 this year, but his .489 xSLG (86th percentile) suggests bad luck has a lot to do with Guerrero’s (and Toronto’s) slow start. His .298 xBA (94th) is right on pace with what he recorded last season, too.
Guerrero and the Blue Jays also draw a very favorable matchup against Cleveland LHP Logan Allen. Allen sports a brutal 5.17 xERA (12th percentile) to go with a .275 xBA (14th). He also struggles against RHBs and has allowed them to slash .306/.366/.569 with 29 extra-base hits and 12 home runs on the season.
Home runs have been a problem for Allen this year. He is coughing up 1.77 xHR/9, the highest such rate of any starter on tonight’s slate. Allen has coughed up 12.7 expected home runs this year, but 15 of his batted balls allowed would’ve been home runs in Toronto. While it’s been a slow start for Vladdy in the home run department, he has mashed eight balls that would’ve cleared the Rogers Centre fences.
I’m buying Guerrero to tally multiple bases (+475 at BetMGM). It’s been a disappointing season from him so far, but with 11 mph winds blowing out through left-center field tonight — and 72% humidity in the forecast — it’s a great get-right spot for him.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run live odds page!
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