After a loaded Wednesday slate, March Madness and the MLB return to compete with the NBA. As a result, we’re down to a two-game card, one of which features a long list of injured players. I’m only making two NBA player prop picks today: we’re fading Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo in different ways tonight.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Damian Lillard & More
Damian Lillard Player Prop
Opening today’s smaller-than-usual card is an NBA player prop that stood out toward the top of the OddsShopper ’s picks for today. I happen to agree with it because of projection-based reasons: we’re fading Milwaukee Bucks point guard Damian Lillard in the scoring department.
Lillard is averaging 24.5 points per game this year, but that takes a dip when he plays on the road (23.4) and with his superstar teammate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, in the starting lineup (23.9). Lillard’s average has also dipped to just 23.9 in games following the All-Star Break.
Lillard draws a tough matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans. A few of their pieces are out, namely Jose Alvarado and Brandon Ingram, but their defense should harass Lillard enough to cause him problems. New Orleans ranks fifth in points allowed per game to point guards over the last 15 (20.8) and seventh over the last seven (20.8).
Lillard’s points prop is trading at 23.5 on Fanatics with the under priced at -125. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 22.5 for odds of -117. I got my action down on the under 23.5 at -113 on FanDuel before that number got bid off the board, so I recommend you act fast if you want to fade Lillard tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 23.5 Points -125 at Fanatics
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
My morning of NBA handicapping follows a simple process: I look at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper all before I start my original research. With such a small slate today (and so many questions in the Celtics-Hawks game, I didn’t have to think much about this one. I added this Giannis Antetokounmpo player prop to my card without hesitation after seeing it in the model — we’re backing him to stay under 0.5 3-pointers.
I also like this NBA player prop because Giannis is a major regression candidate. He has shot 45.5% from beyond the arc since the All-Star Break after shooting a miserable 25.5% from long distance before it. He is currently averaging 0.8 3-pointers per game since the pause after averaging 0.4 beforehand. Further, Giannis is 5-1 to this under over his last six games.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It takes the odds from across the market; adjusts for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses that information to produce a fair price for each bet. When we see a bet trading for longer odds than the fair price — or true odds — we attack. That’s what we see with this Giannis bet today:
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Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 3-Pointers -120 at bet365
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