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NBA Player Props OddsShopper’s Model is CRUSHING This Season

Updated March 18, 2024 | 12:47 pm CDT by Isaiah Sirois

I love betting on NBA player props. One of my favorite tools that I’ve got in my sports betting bag is NBA player prop betting.

NBA Player Props OddsShopper’s Model is CRUSHING This Season

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3-Pointers: OddsShopper’s Second-Most Profitable NBA Player Props

NBA Player Prop Performance: 3-Pointers

Timing Total Bets Total Profit Total ROI
2 Hours Pre-Tip 4,955 $20,090 3.8%
12 Hours Pre-Tip 2,081 $29,206.67 13.6%
*Total profit assumes each bet is sized to win $100.

If you’re a procrastinator — or you just don’t have time to get your bets down until an hour or so before the game — our model’s player prop picks for 3-pointers have offered bettors the best returns to this point in the NBA season.

Securing a steady 13.6% return on investment (ROI) from any bets is absurd. While you will have to get your action down quite early to beat the market by 12 hours, OddsShopper’s tools can make doing so a valuable use of your time each day.

Although 3-pointer markets are often seen as high variance, which makes them difficult for projections-based models to handicap, OddsShopper’s market-based model doesn’t have that issue. Because our tools derive their edge from the prices available across the sports betting landscape, not from individual player projections, we’ve found a meaningful way to take advantage of these markets over the long haul.


OddsShopper’s NBA ROI | Why You Should Be Placing MORE Bets

In this simulation of our NBA betting tools, bettors who maxed out their bankrolls profited MORE than those who placed only 40 bets, but all still secured a significant positive return.


Rebounds: OddsShopper’s Most Profitable NBA Player Props

NBA Player Prop Performance: Rebounds

Timing Total Bets Total Profit Total ROI
2 Hours Pre-Tip 7,703 $80,077.01 9.2%
12 Hours Pre-Tip 3,849 $54,446.56 12.8%

Should you have time to get your action down 12 hours before the night’s NBA action tips off, our model’s player prop picks for rebounds have offered bettors strong returns — and they’re still very profitable for late bettors, too.

The model’s ridiculous 12.8% ROI from these markets when wagering 12 hours before tip far outpaces the returns you can hope for from most index funds — and you don’t even have to worry about an economic downturn. The 9.2% return from bets placed two hours before tip is also nuts, so if you’re unable to bet until later in the day, this market is one to exploit.

Again, rebounding is somewhat high variance from a projections perspective — you can’t predict how many favorable bounces your targeted player will get, for instance — our market-based approach has found an edge entirely independent of a player’s rebounding stats. By indexing the odds across the market, and then adjusting for hold, book sharpness and other factors, our model identifies rebounding props with positive expected value to help you build your bankroll each day.

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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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