We cleaned up on Saturday, sweeping our article plays by hitting unders for Tyrese Maxey, Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes! As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Domantas Sabonis & More
Jonas Valanciunas Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans will play the Toronto Raptors tonight, and if I’m the Raptors, I’m worried about this one. Their already thin rotation just had to play a double-overtime game against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, and all of their starters (save Jakob Poeltl) ended up playing for 40-plus minutes. Scottie Barnes played 48. They now have to make the trek to New Orleans for this one.
While the Pelicans have some injury issues of their own to worry about, as Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are both questionable, those developments could open up some extra shot attempts for center Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas is primarily an interior scorer, as his shot chart would suggest, but he can still cook from beyond the arc on occasion. Valanciunas has made at least one 3-pointer in 22 of his 49 (44.8%) starts.
Toronto’s now-gassed defense already struggles against opposing bigs and perimeter shooters. The Raptors gave up four 3-pointers to Chet Holmgren last night on 4-for-10 shooting. The Thunder shot 23-for-63 from beyond the arc. On Friday, the Raptors gave up a 3-pointer to Alperen Sengün and another two to Jabari Smith Valanciunas is trading at +150 (40%) to sink a 3-pointer on bet365, which is worth a half-unit wager to me. I may come back to him with a bet on his points over if Williamson gets ruled out, too.
NBA Player Prop Pick:
The Golden State Warriors will visit the Brooklyn Nets this evening. The Nets aren’t a great team, but with Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton, they’re a solid rebounding unit. The Nets rank 12th in rebound rate on the year (50.3%) and 13th over the last three games (51.2%), of which Simmons has played two. check out our breakdown! Our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for NBA player prop results or testimonials from readers like you below! Skeptical of our market-based model’s reasoning? Trusting the market to make your picks instead of projections can be frightening at first, but our data reveals it to be a profitable long-term strategy. The more +EV bets you place per day, the better! For non-market-based reasons, this Kuminga under makes sense because the talented forward isn’t so talented on the glass. He is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game this year on 0.185 per minute — he’d need 36-p minutes to go over this number at that rate. NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 6.5 Rebounds -110 at BetMGM I’ve saved my favorite NBA player prop pick today for last: we’re going to fade Domantas Sabonis tonight. Sabonis, doubtlessly talented, is averaging 19.9 points and eight assists per game this year (27.9 P&A), but those rates have ticked down to 18.1 and 8.3 (26.4 P&A) over his last seven games. He now draws a tough matchup with the defensively efficient Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs rank fourth in defensive rating over the last seven (108.9) and second on the year (110.5). The Cavs should limit Sabonis as they have limited other centers. Over the last seven games, Cleveland has surrendered the eighth-fewest points per game to centers (19.6) to go with the seventh-fewest assists (3.4). On the season, Cleveland ranks seventh (21.6) and fifth (3.8), respectively. While Jarrett Allen is questionable for this one, Evan Mobley, a better defender, doesn’t have an injury designation. Allen’s absence would certainly hurt, but Mobley is more than capable of picking up the slack. Sabonis’ recent production versus the Cavaliers is a bit of a concern, as he is averaging 28 points and assists versus Cleveland over a three-game same with the Kings, including a 33 P&A performance back in November. However, Sabonis shot an absurd 80/50/55 in that one, far better than his usual rates this year (62/43/69), while the Kings shot 59/48/64 as a team, helping Sabonis tally 10 assists. But with the Cavs building momentum on defense and listed as favorites for this one — and with Sabonis averaging just 25.6 P&A in losses — I’m eager to fade him. NBA Player Prop Pick:
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Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
Domantas Sabonis Player Prop
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