MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, April 2 (2024)

RHH Manny Machado will take on the St. Louis Cardinals today. Targeting him for Dinger Tuesday is a bit awkward because we’ve got neither wind blowing out in our favor nor a hitter-friendly park — but even a glance at the MLB weather report today reveals that several of our alternatives could get rained out.

Machado draws RHP Miles Mikolas, which is a great matchup for our purposes. Mikolas coughed up 28.7 xHR last season, 29 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Petco Park, including a fly-out hit by Machado that would’ve counted as a home run in 18 stadiums. Unfortunately, just not Petco Park.

But Mikolas’ struggles from last season seem to have continued into this year. Last year, he notched a 5.44 xERA and (11th percentile) and .291 xBA allowed (5th percentile); in his first start of the year, he notched a 10.38 ERA and allowed a .412 BA. Sure, it’s a one-game sample — and he was facing the Los Angeles Dodgers — but he remains a fade for us.

Today, the MLB betting model suggests that we fade Toronto’s starter, RHP Jose Berrios, on the strikeout markets. The under 4.5 strikeouts will cost you only +130 at SuperBook or +125 at BetMGM despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging a whopping +104. We’re scoring a boatload of edge relative to the market here — the true odds for this bet are only +113.

Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.

The massive odds disparity is causing this home run pick to render as a +EV bet today, but there are projections-based reasons to get excited about Marte tonight. For one, he’s an excellent batsman — Marte recorded a .266 xBA (70th percentile) last season with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph (77th percentile).

Marte mashed 27 actual and 25 expected home runs last season, 25 of which would’ve cleared the fences at his home park, where he’ll play tonight’s game. It should be a warm night at Chase Field, so we also won’t have to worry about the weather in this one.

But perhaps most exciting is the pitching matchup. Marte draws LHP Nestor Cortes, whose average exit velocity allowed of 89.6 mph (34th percentile) and fastball velocity of 91.6 mph (16th percentile) make him vulnerable to the long ball.

Cortes coughed up 10.1 xHR in just 63.1 innings pitched last season, and 11 of those batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Chase Field. He also coughed up a home run to Houston’s Jake Meyers in his first start of the year to go with a 7.20 ERA.