I’m off on Sundays, but this column cashed winning tickets for both RHH Adolis Garcia and LHH Yordan Alvarez on Saturday. Neither went yard, but both tallied multiple bases. Today, we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Monday, April 15
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani
The Los Angeles Dodgers suffered a dispiriting home loss to the San Diego Padres last night off the bat of the supposedly irrelevant SH Jurickson Profar. They’ll now host the Washington Nationals, and I’m a big fan of LHH Shohei Ohtani in this spot. We’re getting his over 1.5 total bases for +100 at DraftKings, which is a fantastic deal for this matchup.
The Nationals will start LHP Mitchell Parker today, which marks his first MLB appearance. Parker has made one start in AAA this season, and it went well for him — he coughed up only two baserunners over four innings. However, this is a major step up in competition for him.
Further, Parker’s minor-league stats last season were not especially impressive. His 4.72 ERA and 1.419 WHIP left a lot to be improved. The .219/.325/.367 slash line he allowed to LHHs, while solid, will be difficult to replicate against Ohtani and this Dodgers lineup.
Despite all the controversy and scandal swirling around his former translator, Ohtani hasn’t missed a beat behind the plate. He has mashed 3.6 expected home runs with four batted balls that would’ve cleared the L.A. fences. His .362 xBA and .711 xSLG both rank in the 99th percentile.
While I’m not eager to pay the stiff market price to back Ohtani to go yard, I’m excited about the chance to get him at even odds to tally multiple bases today. Ohtani has gone over 1.5 total bases in all but seven of his 18 starts, and he’s slashing an encouraging .321/.355/.536 versus LHPs so far this season.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Gil
While I still originate some picks, I rely on our market-based betting model to construct a diverse portfolio of the better insulated you are from variance, and we have the simulations to prove it. The model wants action on this MLB player prop pick for RHP Luis Gil today for market-based reasons, but I like it for the simple projection-based reason that Toronto ranks seventh in strikeouts taken per game this year (7.6).
Now, let’s talk about our guide to using +EV tools.
Today, the MLB betting model recommends getting some action on Gil’s under on the strikeout market due to a market disparity: the under 5.5 will cost you only -104 at FanDuel despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -135. We’re getting a boatload of edge relative to the market in this spot; the true odds for this bet come in at -116!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Gil total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner
RHH Trea Turner has been a mainstay in this column. He doesn’t have the home runs we’d like to have seen from him, but he’s been making us money by getting multiple bases, averaging 1.6 bags per game. I recommend backing him on the total bases market again today, and our MLB betting model trusts him to go yard, too.
Turner draws a matchup with the Colorado Rockies and the struggling RHP Cal Quantrill. Quantrill’s bloated 7.20 ERA is much worse than his 4.93 xERA, but his 92.6 mph average exit velocity allowed (8th percentile) and the 3.4 expected home runs he has coughed up are major red flags — or, in this context, green flags for Turner’s home run prop.
Turner may have just one home run to his name this year, but he has 1.6 expected home runs, with one no-doubter and one ball that would’ve gone yard at a majority of ballparks. He now has two batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia. Turner is slashing .313/.353/.438 versus RHPs this season, so look for him to stay hot tonight.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Trea Turner home run live odds page!
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