The TOUR moves to Mexico this week with a field devoid of big names but at a course friendly to the big stick. It’s why we are here to discuss our Mexico Open first round leader bets, picks and more for the event.
Vidanta is a long hitter’s paradise and that’s not just the scenery. We will focus on a couple of key metrics this week but most will focus on a golfer’s ability to hit for distance both off the tee and longer irons, accuracy need not apply. While staying out of the rough at any course is ideal, there’s less penalty here.
Putting is always important to weight, especially for any first round leader (FRL). It’s a metric that can distance a golfer from the field, even if it’s for one day. Tee times are vital for more success in choosing the Mexico Open first round leader picks, as golfers in the earlier groupings seem to get the better of the course – weather notwithstanding. The last thing to keep in mind is overall value compared to FRL pricing. Most, if not all, odds in the first round are based on overall price to win – not necessarily first round history.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our every expert pick!
The Mexico Open First-Round Leader Bets
Keys to Mexico Open First-Round Leader Picks In 2024
Unlike last week, another long course at Riviera, Vidanta Vallarta is far more forgiving with missed shots. Distance is coveted far more than accuracy, allowing bettors to truly hone in on some deeper value in an already weak field. That stays the same for any FRL to outright winner, being able to crush the ball and make some putts will lead up to victory. We have seen a couple of shorter hitters make their way to the top, but overall distance has proven to be anyone’s best friend at Vidanta.
There are two other areas to focus besides just hitting long off the tee, putting as mentioned, and setting up scoring opportunities off approach shots. Strokes gained off approach shots can be a massive edge especially if that golfer isn’t knocking down 10-15ft putts. The distance allows easier approach shots, which can negate spotty – not awful – putting.
Mexico Open First-Round Leader Bets
Mexico Open First Round Leader Picks: Taylor Pendrith +4000 BetMGM
One of the first to tee off, Taylor Pendrith comes off a T9 at the Farmers where he obliterated the golf ball. His fit for distance here is nearly perfect as the Canadian bomber was gaining off the tee (OTT) and overall distance. Getting first crack at this course is a benefit that doesn’t feel truly baked in with a 40-1 shot. He’s currently 25-1 to win overall, and bounced back from a MC the week prior to Torrey Pines.
Speaking of which, a decent comp to Vidanta with length but – like most courses – less forgiving than in Mexico. Pendrith was a mess at the Amex, missing the cut and losing strokes all over the course, but he slid in T10 at the Sony – gaining over a stroke on the green. That’s the missing link here, if Pendrith can either make putts or set up shorter putts, he’s going to run hot with a birdie streak. If Pendrith continues what we saw at Torrey, then he’s not only a great FRL play at +4000, he’s worth a .15u to win.
Best Mexico Open First-Round Leader Bet: Taylor Pendrith +4000 BetMGM
Mexico Open First Round Leader Picks: Jake Knapp: +5000 at BetMGM
The bomber’s retreat nestled in the southwest corner of Mexico should treat Jake Knapp well. We are counting on him being comfortable right away, from the initial tee shot Thursday morning off the 10th. Knapp wasn’t great OTT but still clubbed his way to a T28 last week at Riviera. Again, while the Genesis rewards distance it severely penalizes inaccuracy. The better comp was the week prior at Torrey where Knapp crushed the golf ball, finishing T3. There’s zero reason why he can’t continue to hammer away OTT and make some putts – gaining in each of his last two events.
The best reason to jump on Knapp as FRL isn’t his distance so much as his consistent approach shots. He’s gained strokes at the WM and Farmers, which should absolutely translate over to easier shots at Vidanta. Expect some runs from Knapp in the early going.
Best Mexico Open First-Round Leader Bet: Jake Knapp +5000 BetMGM
