This week’s Monday Night Football matchup highlights two teams known for their defensive identities. However, one of these squads has some glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball. Let’s look to attack those vulnerabilities with my two favorite NFL Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions for the game!
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Bo Nix H/L Than 21.5 Rushing Yards
Bo Nix has entered the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation. A large part of his success this season is due to his mobility and improvisation. This season, he’s averaging over five carries for 25 yards per game. While his rushing production can vary from game to game, he’s proven to be efficient when he takes off.
The Cleveland Browns, led by star defensive end Myles Garrett, boast an aggressive defensive line. They rank second in pressure rate and fifth in both blitz and hurry rates. If they maintain that strategy, Nix will likely face constant pressure, forcing him out of the pocket and into opportunities to use his legs to spark the offense.
Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections have Nix rushing the ball over five times for around 27 yards. We may have to sweat this one out a bit, but I believe Nix gets over this mark.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Bo Nix Higher Than 21.5 Rushing Yards
Jaleel McLaughlin H/L Than 19.5 Rushing Yards
We’re sticking with rushing props here, as both Stokastic’s projections and I see value in Jaleel McLaughlin going over 19.5 rushing yards tonight.
Our data projects McLaughlin for six carries and 26 yards. While technically the second-string running back, he’s been more efficient than starter Javonte Williams. McLaughlin averages 4.3 yards per carry compared to Williams’ 3.7.
The Browns have a formidable defensive front, as noted above, but they’re allowing 4.7 yards per carry and rank 20th in rush EPA allowed. Despite limited opportunities, McLaughlin has consistently maximized his touches. I expect him to do so again tonight, making this a spot worth targeting.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jaleel McLaughlin Higher Than 19.5 Rushing Yards
