The Kentucky Derby is back in its traditional spot on the first Saturday in May, marking the exciting start of the Triple Crown. The 151st running at Churchill Downs brings plenty of intrigue, notably trainer Bob Baffert’s return and 20 horses competing to begin their journey toward history. In this post, we’ll be providing free Kentucky Derby expert picks. You know, the top Kentucky Derby bets!
For bettors, this race offers thrilling opportunities and potential big payouts. With such a large field, the outcomes are numerous, making this event uniquely exciting. Let’s dive into the race preview, highlight some standout horses, and outline my betting strategy for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
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Race Preview
Twenty horses qualified for the Derby through points accumulated in earlier races. The favorite, Journalism, has been impressive and deserves his short odds. An interesting angle this year involves several Japanese entrants who bring some mystery and potential upside.
Weather conditions might affect the track, with possible rain on Friday leading to a potentially sloppy surface on Saturday. Still, I don’t expect the weather to significantly influence the race outcome.
Here are a few horses to consider when building your Kentucky Derby card:
Free Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
17) Sandman (6-1)
Sandman, starting from post 17, is my top pick despite historically challenging positioning. Sired by Tapit, trained by Mark Casse, and ridden by Jose Ortiz, he’s got a formidable team behind him. Although a bit erratic, Sandman’s talent was undeniable in his Arkansas Derby victory. His primary challenge will be navigating traffic, but his potential makes him my main selection.
18) Sovereignty (5-1)
Another major contender is Sovereignty, positioned at post 18 and currently the second betting choice. A proven closer, he showcased impressive finishes at both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The experienced trainer-jockey duo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado further boost his credibility. Sovereignty needs to improve speed-wise, but he’s one of the strongest threats to Journalism.
3) Final Gambit (30-1)
For a true Derby longshot, Final Gambit is my pick. Listed at 30-1, he showed late potential in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. Notably, Final Gambit hasn’t run on dirt before, creating uncertainty but also opportunity. If a fast pace develops upfront, this horse could capitalize in the stretch, making him a valuable inclusion on exotic tickets.
Kentucky Derby Bets
- To Win: 17) Sandman
- Exacta Box: 17, 18, 3
With these selections, I’m focused on Sandman’s potential win while also positioning myself for significant returns with the exacta box involving Sandman, Sovereignty, and Final Gambit.
Good luck with your wagers, and enjoy the race!
