Really, GCU? We lost a great bet on the ‘Lopes yesterday, getting them at +115 on the run line despite the rest of the market sitting at +100 (and closing at -110). Oh well — you win more of those bets than you lose. We’re sitting a a grim 3-6 (-3.5u) on college baseball bets this season, but I’ve found a sharp spot for us to start digging out of this hole. Let’s dive into today’s college baseball odds to make our picks and predictions for today, Friday, February 23. Hungry for more? You’ll find more college baseball picks on Twitter or 2024 college baseball season preview.
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: February 23
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today
Iowa Hawkeyes at Auburn Tigers
Iowa: -115 | Auburn: -115
Game Time: 6 pm. ET
Where: Jacksonville, Fla
Odds via BetMGM
The Jax College Baseball Classic will get underway this weekend. The round-robin tournament features Iowa, Auburn, Virginia and Wichita State. The matchups give us an excellent spot to back Iowa, as star RHP Brody Brecht will take the mound versus Auburn in what’s expected to be a tight game. I favor Iowa by slightly more than BetMGM.
Brecht is the real deal. He is the sixth-ranked prospect in this draft class, per D1 Baseball. Brecht recorded a 3.74 ERA and 12.7 K/9 for Iowa last year over 77 innings pitched. He struggled over the summer, recording a 6.14 ERA in Cape Cod, but his 14.7 K/9 was still impressive. After one start this season, he owns a 2.08 ERA and 22.8 K/9 over 4.1 innings pitched.
Opposing Brecht is Auburn’s RHP Chase Allsup. Allsup made 20 appearances and eight starts last season, recording a 5.47 ERA and 8.9 K/9 over 49.1 innings pitched. He owns a 5.79 ERA and 9.6 K/9 over 4.2 innings pitched this season.
The Hawkeyes will have an edge on the mound for Brecht’s usual four-to-five innings, but how do these offenses compare, and how are the bullpens? Iowa’s offense generated 14 runs last weekend before plating 20 on Tuesday. Auburn destroyed Eastern Kentucky last weekend with 32 runs and plated another seven versus UAB on Tuesday. Auburn’s lone top-100 prospect, 100th-ranked OF Chris Stanfield, owns an impressive 1.479 OPS through 18 plate appearances.
The last time we saw Brecht on the mound, RHP Jack Whitlock relieved him in the mid-fourth before lasting 3.2 innings. Whitlock recorded a 2.52 ERA and 9.6 K/9 last year over 13 innings, all in relief. He earned a 2.45 ERA and 4.9 K/9 for his efforts last weekend. The Hawkeyes’ bullpen coughed up seven earned runs last weekend, six of which fell on RHP Reece Beuter. Five other pitchers, not counting Whitlock, saw action in the three-game weekend sample.
Every other book lists Iowa as the favorite at odds of -125 with Auburn close behind at -105. Every book except BetMGM, where this game is a true tossup between teams with odds of -115. I jumped on that line for a unit, and I encourage you to do the same. This Auburn team could be very good, even great, but I need to see more to adjust my priors, and the advantage Iowa has on the mound should prove too much to overcome.
College Baseball Pick Today: Iowa ML -115 at BetMGM
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