The goal of OddsShopper (as a leading betting model) is shopping lines and getting you top betting value by digging for the edges the market provides. For today, that shopping has led us to a horrifically mispriced spot in Thunder-Bucks, specifically a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop, and even more specifically Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars has one of the best, if not the best, rewards program in the sports betting industry, and it also has a great new promo: Have your first bet paid back in bonus bets if it loses — up to $1,000!
If you haven’t signed up with Caesars yet, March Madness (and the NBA stretch run) is a perfect time for it. Go do that, earn your bonus and then put in this Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bet!
guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop: Best Thunder-Bucks Bet
Thunder-Bucks Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 31.5 Points
Woof — you don’t find player props with this much value very often, and you probably won’t see it stay like this by the time you’re finished with your lunch — so grab it now while you can.
This is another crucial example of the importance of line shopping; across the industry this under is quite literally taking on every possible option, from plus money at Caesars to unbettably short odds at sharp book Pinnacle.
There are a couple of other sportsbooks offering +EV odds on Gilgeous-Alexander’s points under (DraftKings and PointsBet), but their even odds are no match for the +104 at Caesars.
This bet’s expected win rate isn’t crazy high or anything — just a respectable 54% — and Milwaukee’s all-over-the-place defense could give Gilgeous-Alexander some more scoring punch that his 30.8 season average. However, he is on a “cold” streak of six straight games below 31.
And since Caesars is pushing a bet that is 9.8% +EV, about as high as you’ll see a player prop, this is an immediate lock spot. Again, move quickly because Caesars is soon going to realize its mistake.
Thunder-Bucks Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points (+104 at Caesars)
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