Portfolio EV for Tuesday, Jan. 14.
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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Giannis Antetokounmpo Lower Than 32.5 Points
If you’ve perused Stokastic.com at all today, you would know that Giannis is one of the top NBA DFS darlings for tonight’s slate. That said, we can hedge a little bit by fading his points on Underdog.
Giannis’ numbers are massive across the board according to Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections. You know what else is massive? A 32.5 points target. We are giving him 32.1 tonight to lead all scorers, and that is still below this Underdog projection. Sacramento is also a slight pace down for Milwaukee and was a top-10 defense over the last 10 games.
Obviously, Antetokounmpo dropping 40 tonight would surprise no one. As it stands, however, we give him a 55% chance of scoring 32 or fewer points.
Keegan Murray Lower Than 12.5 Points
Sticking with the same game, Murray is also a strong fade target tonight. Murray’s efficiency has taken a dive this year, with his 52.2% true shooting by far the lowest of his career. His field goal and 3-point percentages are also over 30 points lower than last year’s, hence why his scoring average is down from 15.2 to 11.9 despite only taking 0.9 fewer shots per game.
To be fair, Murray scored at least 13 in three straight games. Prior to that, though, he did not reach 13 from Dec. 12 through Jan. 5 (eight games). Stokastic is projecting Murray for 12.2 points in nearly 35 minutes tonight as well, so playing time is not the issue here.
That puts Murray lower than 12.5 at a 54% expected win rate, and the entire Underdog Standard entry has a decent 29% chance of winning 3x.
