The NBA continues to pay out. With smart and successful betting tools at Portfolio EV, many of us have been able to turn a profit this year — even if it’s not every single night. Our seven NBA games tip off with the Rockets battling the lowly Wizards and the new-look Suns on the second leg of the back-to-back in Charlotte. The nightcap features two of the league’s best as the Celtics are in Denver to face the Nuggets. We go right back to the Portfolio EV tools for our top 3 NBA player prop picks tonight!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Tuesday, Jan. 7
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Do you like betting parlays? It turns out you are in luck. It took me less than 60 days to hit 100 units to start the NBA season, and I’m back with another run — with a twist. I’m taking the top Portfolio EV plays each day and throwing them in parlays, same-game parlays and round robins — follow along here. The journey is a long one, but we did start our first day with a 5.5-unit profit.
You are more than welcome to throw these plays in a parlay, but note, these are specifically pushed as solo plays from our tools.
Let’s start with Devin Booker under 6.5 assists at +105 on DraftKings, which has a massive edge of 8% that comes with beating true odds and betting into a market that returns profit over time. OK, so what exactly does all that mean?
The true odds of this bet are -111, yet we are getting a plus-money return from betting it. It’s only at one book, as the rest of the market is either slow or taking advantage of us. By staying ahead of the market — true odds — we gain a +EV edge.
Look at Lauri Markkanen’s 3-pointer prop. The second picture shows the actual layout of the market and books offering this play. We get it at -115 on DraftKings versus -125 on PointsBet, or even worse everywhere else. The true odds for this play are -133, yet only two books are beating the price. Everyone else is ripping us off on this specific bet.
More is better, right? Volume betting helps defeat variance, and getting a bigger return on a plus-money bet means more profit. Naz Reid follows that pattern, too. We get a +130 return on a bet that should be +112. Whether it’s an error or just a gift from DraftKings, the bet is +EV through our market-based approach.
We know we are betting into a profitable market because of something called historical return on investment. Because we are fully transparent with our EV results, people can track which markets have returned a profit and at what rate.
