We did it again. Thanks to the trusty tools over at Portfolio EV, I was able to finish top 5% overall on Pikkit — while clearing nearly 32 units. All publicly tracked and posted, you can even follow my journey on X as I post Portfolio EV parlays. But we preach volume and a consistent approach for a reason, much like we wouldn’t chase any losses — we certainly aren’t going to double down after big wins. There are nine more games to explore tonight as market value is popping all over our tools. Here are the top three NBA player prop picks from Portfolio EV!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Jan. 17
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
A simple rule of thumb with parlays is making sure you are betting each leg as a solo play. Don’t jam stuff in just to do it; instead look at each play as a +EV value play of its own. We have a bunch of games with even more player props across multiple markets. It’s going to take you a ton of time to sift through the junk just to find a gem or two. I cleared nearly 32 units without putting in hours of prep; it was a market-based approach that exploits holes for profit.
Our top play is Jaylen Brown under 4.5 assists at -140 at DraftKings. It’s currently returning a 4.9% EV edge with a 5.5% historical return on investment (HROI). Got it?
What that means is rather simple: This play is beating the true odds — or actual retail price — of the bet. Brown under 4.5 assists should be -158; that’s the fair price. We found a far better number, -140 at DraftKings. Every time we get ahead of the true odds, we build an EV edge.
Brown’s assist prop is -140 at DraftKings, -145 at Caesars. The width of 44 cents is ridiculous, and why anyone would want to be on the losing side of it is beyond me. Again, you don’t need to spend hours figuring this stuff out — the tools do it throughout the day.
Coby White under 26.5 points + rebounds + assists is also best bet at -105 at DraftKings. We still gain a 4.1% EV edge despite the HROI yielding less of a profit. The reason is the points + rebounds + assists market itself is less profitable for our tools than the assists and 3-pointers, the latter best illustrated by our final play.
Zach LaVine under 3.5 3-pointers is another strong bet. The true odds are +102, and he’s sitting at +110 on DraftKings. There’s also a 7.1% HROI for 3-pointers across all +EV bets posted this season. If we posted it as a +EV play then any 3-pointer — over or under — is counting towards that edge.
While same-game parlays will rarely — if ever — return fair value at sports books, you can use your boosts to help restore some balance. This trio of bets would make a fantastic SGPx as each leg is +EV. Each bet is entering a market returning a positive ROI.
The process doesn’t change, and it’s why we can post those massive nights — the ones you see again and again from countless s, including our staff. Sometimes it’s about knowing the process before trusting it, for other people it might simply be looking at results before diving in. The tools allow you to move at your own pace, while still encouraging volume to battle variance. Jump on our latest free week and see for yourself!
