The floundering Atlanta Hawks will host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Atlanta’s fast pace and inefficient defense make this a prime spot for player prop overs, especially with the total trading at 244. Let’s dive into the Luka Doncic player prop odds to identify the best bet for Friday’s Mavericks-Hawks matchup. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
Luka Doncic Player Prop: Best Mavericks-Hawks Bet Today
Mavericks-Hawks Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Triple-Double
Luka Doncic is a triple-double machine. He is averaging 33.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 9.3 assists this year, tallying eight triple-doubles in 37 starts (21.6%). While that hit rate isn’t close to the implied odds for the +210 (32.3%), the Kyrie Irving injury and this matchup more than make up for the difference.
Over the last 15 games, the Hawks have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to point guards (22) but the fourth-most rebounds (6.8) and the sixth-most assists (9.4). Because Doncic is such a high-volume scorer, I’m not worried about the points. He has just six career games with fewer than 10.
This play comes down to rebounds and assists. Doncic should have plenty of chances to rack them up: Atlanta ranks fifth in pace (102.1), 26th in defensive rating (119.3) and 19th in rebound rate (49.9%). Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded a triple-double against them in December.
Of Doncic’s eight triple-doubles this season, two have come in his last three games. He went for 33-13-10 against the Los Angeles Lakers last Wednesday and 33-18-13 against the Boston Celtics on Monday. He nearly got there again versus the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, as he finished the game at 34-8-9. Look for Doncic to keep the momentum rolling in Atlanta tonight, especially with Kyrie Irving on the shelf. Doncic has four triple-doubles in 15 games without Irving this year, good for a win rate of 26.7%.
Doncic’s triple-double prop is trading at +210 on FanDuel but will cost you +200 or +160 at other big public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at only +177. Lock this one in at FanDuel before the line moves closer to where this is trading at the rest of the market.
Mavericks-Hawks Player Prop:
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