Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Dec. 9

Let’s go! We scored another 3-0 sweep last night, hitting on our Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Jokic and Cameron Johnson wagers. We’re down to just one NBA game tonight — the NBA in-season tournament final — so don’t go overboard with too much exposure to one game. My full NBA cards are up to 104-83-3 (+27u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real time, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Davis & More

Anthony Davis Player Prop

The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Indiana Pacers tonight, and, as I’ve emphasized all season: the Pacers can’t stop opposing bigs in the paint. Indiana is allowing the most points in the paint per game (62.5) and the most made shots per game in the restricted area (21.9). That corresponds to the second-most points allowed per game to both centers (25.4) and power forwards (27.6).

Anthony Davis is the best-positioned member of the Lakers to exploit the Pacers’ flaws. He is tied with LeBron James for the most made shots per game in the restricted area (5.4) but leads him in attempts (8 to 7). The Pacers also allow the fourth-most made shots per game in the non-restricted paint, where Davis leads the Lakers in both makes (2.6) and attempts (5.2).

Of course, the books know these things, so his points total is trading at 26.5, above his season average (22.7). But because this is functionally a playoff game and there is $500,000 on the line for both players and coaches, Davis should get some extra minutes.

I’m laddering this NBA player prop to 40 through both 30 and 35. Davis has reached the 30-point mark in just five of 22 starts this year, but he has cleared the 26.5 in 11 starts, so the base of our ladder feels safe at odds of -120 on ESPNBet. Last year saw Davis clear the 30-point mark 20 times over 56 regular-season starts. He cleared the 35 in 13 starts and the 40 in three. While there is a chance that LeBron comes out hot, hurting Davis’ volume, I trust Davis to bounce back after tallying his third-fewest field goal attempts on the year against the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 Points -120 at ESPNBet

Myles Turner Player Prop

Let’s turn to one of the top picks according to OddsShopper . It wants action on several unders, including one for Myles Turner. I chose to tail this one because it gives us a slight bit of correlation with the pick above — if Davis goes off, Turner may get into foul trouble, limiting his minutes while helping Davis get to the charity stripe. Further, Turner is averaging 26.5 points, rebounds and assists per game, so he can afford to have an above-average night without preventing us from cashing.