We cashed in a profitable 2-1 day on our NRFI bets on Wednesday. It likely should’ve been a 3-0 sweep with the only run scored in the Brewers-Marlins game being a solo homer in the first inning. A truly tough scene, much like the NRFI scene on today’s slate. But, I’ve found a no run first inning pick I think we can take that’s right on the cusp of value. Let’s snatch it up before the books juice it too hard.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The total in the Blue Jays-Tigers game tonight is sitting at just 7.5 runs, which is somewhat wild considering just how bad Kevin Gausman has been at the whole pitching thing so far this season. But, here we are with a total under 8 still, and a NRFI staring us straight in the face.
OK, so Gausman hasn’t been THAT bad. Has he been ace material like last season? No.
But, as we like to say around these parts, we don’t need ace performances from these guys for entire games, we only need it for three outs.
And despite having an ERA at almost 5.00 and a WHIP at 1.51, Gausman is 6-3 on NRFIs in his nine starts this season. So, despite the struggles, he’s still managed to be a profitable NRFI pitcher for us.
He’s still a strikeout-per-inning guy even with all the struggles, and the Tigers are striking out nearly 25% of the time against right-handed pitching this season.
Outs without making are HUGE when betting NRFIs, and we’ll take all of those we can get, especially with a guy who has struggled a bit like Gausman has to this point of the season.
I still think he can get us three outs.
To kick off the game, we Mr. K/9 himself, Jack Flaherty. Yes, he is now the MLB leader in strikeouts-per-nine-inning rate at 11.85.
Flaherty has been a revelation this year for the Tigers, and if you look at his Baseball Savant page, you could even say he’s been a tad unlucky with some of his results.
All of the important metrics you’d want to see from a pitcher are basically gushing red as you can see in the accompanying chart.
With how he limits the barrel percentage, it’s somewhat curious how he has given up seven homers already this season. That feels like bad variance.
Much of the same can be said for his mediocre NRFI record, thus far.
But against the Blue Jays, who are 28th in first-inning run percentage, I think Flaherty cashes us out tonight on this NRFI.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Tigers NRFI (-130 at ESPN BET)
