We took one on the chin last night, with George Kirby selling our no run first inning bet in epic fashion — serving up back-to-back dongs on silver platters. Our other NRFI pick — Mets-Cardinals — got postponed because Mother Nature was feeling like a real biotch. So, we had to take an 0-1 Wednesday and suffer a full-unit loss, which we hate, especially with a small Thursday slate. But, even with the small slate, we don’t force plays when they’re not there, so we’re only going to rock with one no run first inning bet today. So, let’s dive into my favorite NRFI pick for Thursday, May 9th.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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I never thought in the year of our lord 2024 I’d be putting my hard-earned American dollars on these two pitchers for a no run first inning bet … but, here we are. What could go wrong?!?
It’s just your run of the mill Erick Fedde–Ben Lively NRFI bet today. Like we drew it up in the lab.
Let’s start with the basics …
We’re looking at a 7.5-run total today, and temperatures are going to be on the cooler side in Chicago tonight, with it looking like it’ll be right around 50 degrees at first pitch.
Cooler temps generally helps tamp down some of the offensive firepower, so we’re off to a good start already.
The Guardians are also without leadoff hitter Steven Kwan, who is on the IL with a bum hammy. They’re leading off Estevan Florial, who sports a 37.5% strikeout rate … and we just absolutely love to see that.
Fedde is going to need to navigate the tough bats of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor in the top half of the first. But, in his limited 25 ABs against Cleveland hitters, he’s held them to a .120 average.
Also, Fedde is 5-2 on NRFIs this season, and has already NRFI’d the Guardos once. So we know he’s got it in his bag.
When you pull up team offense rankings on Fangraphs, this is where the White Sox rank in all of the meaningful categories:
- Batting Average: 29th (.211)
- On Base Percentage: 30th (.271)
- Slugging Percentage: 30th (.326)
- wOBA: 30th (.269)
- wRC+: 30th (71)
For reference, 30th would be DFL (aka … dead f*ckin last). In other words, they’re the absolute worst in four of the five major offensive categories we look at when judging a team’s performance.
So, is this no run first inning bet today as much a play on Ben Lively as it is a play against the White Sox? Absolutely not. It’s 10000000% a play against a White Sox offense.
Lively has been strong in his first-inning appearances, though. He’s 4-0 on NRFIs, and has three no run first inning cashes against some strong offenses like the Red Sox (twice) and the Braves (once).
Trust the process of finding lower totals, target the bad offensive teams and always find the value lines like this one at -115 on Bet365.
Let’s ride this NRFI to victory, and come back tomorrow ready for a two-play night.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Guardians-White Sox NRFI (-115 Bet365)
