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MLB Player PrizePicks: This Nestor Cortes Projection Is Beating the Market Ridiculously (May 8)

May 08, 2023 | 10:25 AM by Eytan Shander

PrizePicks offers an extensive slate of 11 MLB games with varying start times and to maximize your experience, we’ll employ the OddsShopper to determine the optimal MLB PrizePicks for Monday.

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MLB PrizePicks Player Projections | May 8

Amed Rosario Fewer Than 1.5 Total Bases

Rosario is facing Joey Wentz, who has not been performing well, and this matchup gives Rosario a chance to hit. However, Rosario has not been getting it done at the plate. He has not had a hit in two games, and before that he only had one hit each game, none of which went for extra bases. So despite not drawing walks, Rosario projects for fewer than 1.5 total bases in this game.

Nestor Cortes More Than 6.5 Strikeouts

Cortes is not pitching that well, and his strikeout rate is not overly high, but he has gotten to seven strikeouts in three of his last four. The real value of this play is the Oakland batters he will face like Kevin Smith, Jesus Aguilar, Shea Langeliers and Ramon Laureano, all of whom strike out at a high clip. Cortes is in a good spot to have a good game, and with the Yankees set to play with the lead, Cortes can pitch aggressively. OddsShopper gives this a 57% win expectancy, and it’s beating the market by a significant margin.

Kyle Freeland More Than 3.5 Strikeouts

Although Freeland doesn’t have a great strikeout rate (17%), there are some factors that make this prop look favorable. The Rockies are taking on Mitch Keller and the Pirates, and Colorado should hang in the game even if they get down early. The Pirates have lost seven straight games, and while there aren’t any standout batters, there are still opportunities for Freeland to work in some strikeouts. He hasn’t been dominant so far, but with this favorable matchup, he can certainly get to four.

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Eytan Shander

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Eytan Shander

Long time radio host and TV analyst currently working in Philadelphia

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