Skip to content
Categories MLB

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for Wednesday, May 22

Updated May 22, 2024 | 10:25 am CDT by Isaiah Sirois

Wednesday brings us a mixed slate of MLB action, with a first wave of games starting in the early afternoon and a second wave starting in the evening. I’ll be focusing on the later slate in this article but will have picks for the early games in MLB betting tools for a spin? You get a month for only $1… keep reading to find out how!

Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 22

React App

MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is good. You know it, I know it, the books know it — but sometimes they don’t appreciate how game-breakingly good he truly is. That’s what we’re seeing tonight for his home matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks and RHP Ryne Nelson.

For starters, Ohtani is pummeling pitchers this year, especially those who throw righty. He sports an elite .356/.425/.655 slash line in all situations with 13 home runs. His line improves to .377/.458/.746 against RHPs, which also counts 10 of his home runs.

Those numbers aren’t noise, either. Some batsmen who put up stats that good early in a season can’t sustain them, but Ohtani’s .363 xBA (100th percentile) and .710 xSLG (100th) reveal his actual numbers should be even better.

Meanwhile, Nelson is floundering against opposite-handed batters. To be clear, he’s floundering against everyone, as he owns a 7.06 ERA and 5.16 xERA (16th percentile). His .310 xBA allowed (3rd percentile) is brutal. Lefties like Ohtani are slashing .292/.338/.538 against him with seven extra-base hits and three home runs.

Lastly, the MLB weather report says we can expect 63-degree temperatures and 75% humidity at Dodger Stadium today. A 9.2 mph wind will be blowing out through right-center field. Look for Ohtani to capitalize in a favorable matchup in favorable conditions.

The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Tuesday, May 21, including a bet for Gunnar Henderson...
Sign up for OddsShopper today! Get 50% off with code “POSITIVE”.

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani total bases live odds page!


MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tarik Skubal

We’ll turn to the early slate for this pick from our MLB betting model. At 2 p.m. ET, the Kansas City Royals will host the Detroit Tigers, and it’ll be LHP Tarik Skubal taking the mound for the Motor City Kitties. Skubal owns an elite 1.80 ERA, which his 2.09 xERA (97th percentile) suggests is no fluke.

Skubal has become an excellent strikeout pitcher, recording a 31.6% strikeout rate (92nd) after recording a 32.9% last season. However, he’ll take on a Royals team that ranks second in strikeouts taken per game (6.8), and the FanDuel:

While Skubal clocks in at +106 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at FanDuel, the same wager is trading at odds between +100 and -120 at most public books. Caesars, the sharpest of the public books, has this one at -135.

This line renders as a MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).

Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.

MLB Betting Model Pick: Tarik Skubal total strikeouts live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper

Sign up for bet365 today to get $150 in bonus bets!

The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers will do battle at Citizens Bank Park this evening, and we can expect a 10-mph wind blowing straight out through center field. With 83-degree temperatures and 56% humidity in the forecast, conditions are favorable for home runs.

I like Bryce Harper to go yard today for more than just the weather, though. He’ll take on RHP Dane Dunning, whose 4.10 ERA is already inflated relative to his 5.55 xERA (12th percentile). He leads the Rangers in home runs allowed, both actual (7) and expected (7.6), coughing up 10 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia.

Lefties like Harper are slashing .175/.299/.474 versus Dunning with five of those actual dingers. Meanwhile, Harper is slashing .276/.395/.561 versus righties like Dunning with eight home runs. Harper’s .276 xBA (79th percentile) and .527 xSLG (91st) suggest his strong start to the season is very much sustainable, and I expect him to stay hot with a dinger (+285 at FanDuel) or multiple bases (-105 at FanDuel) this evening.

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bryce Harper home runs live odds page!

React App

OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

Categories MLB
DraftKings Pick6 Predictions: The Charles Schawb Challenge
Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Wednesday, May 22
Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

Next Story

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!

Trending & Related

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 22: Let’s Go Off the Beaten Bath for a Bomb…

NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, April 22

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 20: Special Giveaway Tomorrow If We Get This Tater …

Betting 101

What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting

Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning

Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?

Sports Betting Resources

  • Positive EV NFL Bets
  • Expert NFL Picks
  • Live NBA Odds
  • Positive EV NBA Bets
  • Expert NBA Picks
  • Live NFL Odds
  • NFL Parlay Calculator
  • Positive EV MLB Bets
  • Expert MLB Picks
  • Positive EV College Football Bets
  • Expert College Football Picks

Featured Articles

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!
June 2, 2025 3:10 pm | Sam Smith
How Bettors Used Portfolio EV to Beat the Books in May
June 1, 2025 12:56 pm | Sam Smith
Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning
May 20, 2025 2:17 pm | Dave Loughran
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
May 20, 2025 2:10 pm | Isaiah Sirois
How Portfolio EV Built My NBA Bankroll from $100 to $1,200
May 16, 2025 7:11 am | Greg Ehrenberg
You Don’t Need to Be a Genius to Beat the Books — Just the Right Tools
April 26, 2025 8:15 am | Dave Loughran

Related Articles

MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
June 5, 2025 1:56 pm | Dave Loughran
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
June 5, 2025 11:52 am | Isaiah Sirois
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Pablo Lopez (June 3)
June 3, 2025 12:25 pm | Danny Burke
FREE First MLB Portfolio on Portfolio EV: A Step-by-Step Guide
May 29, 2025 11:56 am | Sam Smith
MLB Betting: What are NRFI & YRFI Bets? First Inning Bets Explained
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Justin Martin
How to Bet on MLB Strikeout Props: Strategy & Expert Advice
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois

Best Sleeper Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
Best Underdog Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
Best ParlayPlay Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
How Do I Make Money Sports Betting? Portfolio EV, Of Course
June 6, 2025 11:00 am
MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
June 5, 2025 1:56 pm
What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting
June 5, 2025 11:54 am
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
June 5, 2025 11:52 am
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
June 5, 2025 11:50 am
Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting
June 5, 2025 11:45 am
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Chet Holmgren (June 5)
June 5, 2025 9:01 am

How Can I Find the Best Sports Betting and DFS App Bonuses?

If you're a new sports bettor, it's hard to know where to start. In fact, it's simpler than it seems, because there are use OddsShopper's Free Bet Converter to maximize your beginning bankroll

Get a bonus code for BetMGM

Get a promo code Caesars Sportsbook

Best DraftKings Promo Code

Get a promo code for DraftKings

Use a promo code for FanDuel

Claim a promo code for PrizePicks

Get a promo code for UnderDog

the ranks of the OddsShopper Hall of Fame

  • Free Expert Picks

    • Free NBA Picks
    • Free MLB Picks
    • Free NFL Picks
    • Free NHL Picks
    • Free NCAAB Picks
    • Free NCAAF Picks
    • Free Golf Picks
    • Free UFC Picks
    • Free EPL Picks
    • Free Tennis Picks
    • Free WNBA Picks
  • Positive EV Bets

    • Positive EV NBA Bets
    • Positive EV MLB Bets
    • Positive EV NFL Bets
    • Positive EV NHL Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAB Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAF Bets
    • Positive EV Golf Bets
    • Positive EV UFC Bets
    • Positive EV EPL Bets
    • Positive EV Tennis Bets
    • Positive EV WNBA Bets
  • Betting Tools

    • Arbitrage Opportunities
    • Parlay Builder
    • PrizePicks Entry Builder
    • Underdog Entry Builder
    • Sleeper Entry Builder
    • Free Bet Converter
  • Articles

    • All Articles
    • NBA Articles
    • NFL Articles
    • NCAAF Articles
    • MLB Articles
    • PGA Articles
    • NHL Articles
    • NASCAR Articles
    • MMA Articles
  • Betting Calculators

    • Expected Value Calculator
    • Hold Calculator
    • Parlay Calculator
    • Odds Converter
  • Live Odds

    • Live NBA Odds
    • Live MLB Odds
    • Live NFL Odds
    • Live NHL Odds
    • Live NCAAB Odds
    • Live NCAAF Odds
    • Live Golf Odds
    • Live UFC Odds
    • Live EPL Odds
    • Live Tennis Odds
  • Sportsbook Promo Codes

    • BetMGM Bonus Codes
    • Bet365 Bonus Codes
    • FanDuel Promo Codes
    • DraftKings Promo Codes
    • Caesars Promo Codes
    • BetRivers Promo Codes
    • Sleeper Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Betr Picks Promo Codes

    • Us
    • of Use
    • Stokastic
OddsShopper Logo
© 2024 Stokastic.All Rights reserved.
This site contains commercial content, We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. OddsShopper makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.