Yesterday’s article split 1-1, cashing a Bryce Miller under with ease but losing an Adley Rutschman over. I’m hoping we can bounce back today for a winning card, the full version of which you can find on expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, July 11, and for more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, July 11
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Alec Bohm
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, and it’s RHP Landon Knack’s turn on the bump. Knack may boast a 2.86 ERA this year, but his 4.18 xERA (39th percentile) paints a less impressive picture. Power has been a major issue for Knack, as he has allowed 1.7 xHR/9 this season.
Of course, we have a 34.2 IP sample of Knack at this level, so take everything with a grain of salt. Still, the .213/.258/.525 slash line he has allowed to RHBs — along with the five home runs — suggest same-handed batters are the way to go when fading Knack right now.
While Alec Bohm isn’t the biggest name in Philadelphia’s batting order, he leads the way in xBA (.303 — 97th percentile) and is second in xSLG (.484 — 84th). It certainly helps that he is slashing .307/.362/.496 with 30 extra-base hits and seven home runs versus RHPs this season.
Bohm has a good enough statistical profile to warrant longer odds than what we’re getting him at for tonight. I’m betting on him to hit a home run (-110 at ESPN BET). Even if he can’t go yard against Knack, the Dodgers’ bullpen has allowed the seventh-most home runs this year (42).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Alec Bohm home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Aaron Civale
Today’s model pick comes from the earlier side of the slate. The Milwaukee Brewers will trot out RHP Aaron Civale against the Pittsburgh Pirates and RHP Paul Skenes today. Civale’s 4.15 xERA (40th percentile) is far better than his 5.18 ERA, but skepticism of him is still warranted.
Civale boasts a 22.9% strikeout rate (54th percentile), but with his strikeout prop trading at 5.5, we just need him to stay under a number he has failed to clear in all but seven of his 18 starts, giving the under a 61.1% hit rate. Sure, the Pirates have taken the fifth-most strikeouts per game this year (9.3), but they’ve averaged just six over their last three.
Civale’s under will cost you from between positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
With this bet, we can see that Civale’s true odds of staying under 5.5 strikeouts are estimated to be -102. The +108 on FanDuel obviously clears that, but so do the +100s at Hard Rock and Circa. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 480 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 5 or higher with at least two hours until game start. Of those bets, 280 won, netting those who tailed a 15.5% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Aaron Civale total strikeouts live odds page!
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