The MLB has been good to us this season, and, while tonight’s slate is a relatively small one, there are still a handful of betting angles worth exploiting. You can access my full betting cards by subscribing to The Profit Isaiah — I can promise picks for every day of the sports calendar once the NFL is in full swing! Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, August 8. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, August 8
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ketel Marte
Because I don’t love the late slate for home run picks, I’ll come clean — my action is on Ketel Marte to record over 1.5 total bases, but with his home run odds clocking in at +350 at BetMGM, it isn’t a bad idea to add that to your card, too. Few batters have a hotter stick than Marte does right now, as he is slashing .364/.431/.784 over the last 30 days.
Marte’s recent games have seen him embrace three true outcomes batting — he has six hits, five of which went for home runs, to go with four walks and seven strikeouts. That’s a bit weird for him, as he has 20 doubles on the year (but just one over the last 30).
The D-backs and Marte will take on LHP Kolby Allard tonight. Across 25 RHBs faced in the show, Allard is allowing them to slash .292/.320/.542 with two home runs. That’s appealing to us as Marte is slashing .360/.415/.714 with 25 extra-base hits and 16 home runs versus LHPs.
Marte’s absurd offensive production is sustainable if you look at his peripherals. His .301 xBA (96th percentile), .542 xSLG (95th), 93.7 mph average exit velocity (97th) and 53.6% hard-hit rate (96th) are all unquestionably elite. Let’s see if he can stay hot against an inexperienced starter tonight.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Ketel Marte +350 atKetel Marte home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Dean Kremer
The Baltimore Orioles are on the road tonight to face the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ll turn to RHP Dean Kremer today, and while the 28-year-old has pitched some gems this year, he isn’t unbeatable. His 4.39 ERA masks a 5.03 xERA (12th percentile), and his 21.7% strikeout rate (45th) isn’t much to write home about.
Although it hasn’t been a good year for Toronto, the Blue Jays can avoid strikeouts. They rank fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.5) on the year, after all. They’re eighth-best in strikeout rate versus RHPs on the year (20.5%) as well. This team may not be going anywhere, but they should at least challenge Kremer tonight.
I like this bet for those projection-based reasons, but a market-based approach reveals some edge as well. If you don’t know what that means, read our guide to positive expected value (+EV):
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s sports betting model indexes the odds from across the market. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” Once we have that number, we can estimate our expected value.
Here, the true odds of Kremer staying under 4.5 strikeouts come out to -152, which is marginally higher than the -148 odds available at FanDuel. This isn’t a game-breaking edge, but it’s a meaningful one — over the long term, bets like this one will turn you a profit.
But how much of a profit will bets like this turn? That’s a good question, and we have an answer: just check out our results page. As of today, our model had dug up 6,733 total strikeout props on the year. A tidy 3,681 of them won, yielding those who tailed a steady 7.6% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts -148 at Dean Kremer total strikeouts live odds page!
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