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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Veterans Stand Out Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
It’s another day of sun in Los Angeles today, and it should be a good one for Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers. They’ll take on the lowly Colorado Rockies, who intend to start LHP Austin Gomber. Gomber owns a bad 5.40 ERA and a worse 5.52 xERA. He also leads the Rockies with 22 actual and 22 expected home runs allowed, 23 of which would’ve gone over the fence at Dodger Stadium. Gombers has majorly struggled against same-handed batters — he has coughed up 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs with a .684 SLG in 95 at-bats.
Few batters are better positioned to take advantage of Gomber than Freddie Freeman. Freeman has feasted against LHPs this year — he owns 23 extra-base hits and 12 home runs with a .716 SLG in 141 at-bats. More importantly, Freeman has just been an efficient hitter all year. He leads the Dodgers in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .418, which also happens to rank in the 98th percentile. He has 23 actual and 22 expected home runs to this name, 26 of which would’ve cleared the fence at Dodger Stadium.
If you’re still not sold on Freeman today, look at the weather in L.A. The clear weather will help, but so will an 8 mph wind blowing out through right field, which is perfect for LHBs like him. You’ll find this home run pick priced at +347 (22.4%) via Pinnacle, a sharp book, but we can buy the +360 (21.7%) via DraftKings Sportsbook instead. Pair that with a wager on Freeman to record over 1.5 total bases at -115 (53.5%) via BetMGM before that line disappears. Pinnacle lists it at -128 (56.1%).
New to DraftKings? Take advantage of their offer: new s can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +360 at DraftKings
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Joey Votto at FanDuel
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Votto draws a matchup against RHP Johan Oviedo, who has struggled against LHBs like him. His 4.18 ERA and 4.37 xERA aren’t awful, but his 13 actual and 16 expected home runs allowed don’t inspire much confidence. Worse, 11 of those home runs have gone to LHBs in 268 at-bats. LHBs own a .422 SLG against Oviedo this year. Meanwhile, Votto has 10 home runs against RHPs this year with a .546 SLG. The spot is absolutely perfect for Votto to go yard.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +474 (17.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +540 (15.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Votto +540 at FanDuel
