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MLB Home Run Picks: One Longshot, One Favorite for Monday (August 21)

Updated August 21, 2023 | 9:10 am CDT by Isaiah Sirois

After cashing a +255 ticket for Luis Robert Jr. on Saturday, I’m looking for some more winners this week — and hopefully, they’ll come with longer odds. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Red-Sox Astros and Giants-Phillies. While most books have an efficient price up for Rafael Devers, the red-hot slugger stands out as a value bet at one book in particular.

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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, August 21

Red Sox-Astros Home Run Pick

When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Isaiah’s Target: Rafael Devers at FanDuel

The Houston Astros will start RHP Cristian Javier tonight, which bodes poorly for them against a lineup full of left-handed power. Javier’s .430 SLG allowed jumps to .486 against LHBs, so a Red Sox lineup that features players like Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida could prove problematic. Javier’s standard stats are already concerning enough for me to fade him here: his 4.49 ERA and 4.63 xERA aren’t good, and neither is his .462 xSLG allowed. Javier is in the 30th percentile in the former expected metric and is 15th in the latter. He has also coughed up 19 actual and 23.1 expected home runs.

Rafael Devers is the best-positioned member of the Red Sox to go yard against Javier tonight. He leads Boston with 29 actual and 30.6 expected home runs to his name, 32 of which would’ve gone over the fence in Houston. Devers also leads Boston with his .388 xwOBA and .559 xSLG, both of which are in the 95th percentile or higher. Further, Devers will benefit from strong, 15 mph winds blowing out through left field, which could help him get some extra distance or keep a ball in fair territory. The 26-year-old slugger is on an incredible tear with 10 hits and three home runs over his last four games.

The odds are steep, but they should be steeper at FanDuel. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Devers at odds of only +250 (28.6%). Let’s pair this with a wager on Devers to record multiple bases, which you’ll find at +105 (48.8%) on FanDuel but -110 (52.4%) or worse everywhere else.

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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Rafael Devers +320 at FanDuel

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Giants-Phillies Home Run Pick

When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Isaiah’s Target: Alec Bohm at FanDuel

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Bohm and the Phillies will take on LHP Scott Alexander and the Giants. Alexander has often served as an opener for the Giants and is likely to give way to bulk reliever LHP Sean Manaea. Alexander has coughed up just one actual and 1.1 expected home runs this year, but Manaea is responsible for giving up eight actual and 9.9 expected home runs this year across 81 innings pitched. Although they’ve been somewhat stingy, Alexander and Manaea have also benefited from playing in a pitcher-friendly park, an advantage they won’t have tonight.

That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +675 (12.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +750 (11.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Alec Bohm +750 at FanDuel

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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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