We have all-day baseball staring at us and only two games in the evening, including the Rickwood Field matchup (RIP Willie Mays). That’s not where we’re heading for our MLB parlay today, however. OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Dodgers-Rockies MLB Parlay: DraftKings SGP With Enrique Hernandez
We are going with value compared to the market, and OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Dodgers-Rockies.
Leg #1: Enrique Hernandez Under 1.5 Total Bases
As of this moment, Hernandez under 1.5 total bases is lapping the field in of expected value for MLB player props. It may surprise you given Hernandez’s career splits against lefties (OPS 134 points higher) and the game being at Coors Field, but these odds are too good to up at -105 on DraftKings.
Hernandez still profiles as better against lefties at age 32. However, that only amounts to a .682 OPS in the split this year and only four extra-base hits in 71 plate appearances.
Rockies lefty starter Ty Blach is pretty volatile against righties, surrendering a .919 OPS and .181 ISO. That is helping the odds here stay at a favorable level. Despite Blach’s poor splits, OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder has Hernandez recording one or zero total bases 55% of the time in simulations. As such, anything longer than -110 is going to be high on the EV scale.
This afternoon that amounts to 6.6% expected value while also giving us a solid win rate to start off our Dodgers-Rockies parlay.
Leg #2: Miguel Rojas Under 1.5 Total Bases
The story with Rojas is more or less the same as Hernandez’s — down to identical odds on his total bases under. The difference is that OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder has Rojas’ under at 53%, a couple points below Hernandez’s win rate, so the True Odds for Rojas are a bit closer to his DraftKings odds — -113 against -105.
Still this bet is comfortably +EV at 3.5%, so we’re hammering it.
Obviously, Rojas has to play for this bet to help us. He has been getting starts since Mookie Betts went down, and the lefty starter means Rojas and Hernandez should both be in the lineup today. That said, Hernandez started at shortstop yesterday against righty Cal Quantrill, so Rojas is not a guarantee as of writing.
If he plays, we’re looking at a guy with solid numbers against lefties, averaging roughly a 0.4 total bases per plate appearances. That means Rojas will on average need four trips to the plate to hit this over, which he has done in about half of his starts. But he has also exited in later innings in seven of 32 starts, so pinch-hit risk is there as well.
Bottom line, this is a market play, and Hernandez and Rojas are similar plays at identical odds. We pair both of these unders together to get to +281 odds, which makes this Dodgers-Rockies parlay a strong 10.3% +EV with a 28% chance of winning.
MLB Parlay Today: +281 at DraftKings
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