We’ve completed the trio of absolutely absurd ways to lose a NRFI bet. A pop up to the shortstop in Angels-A’s, and Nick Allen basically explodes his own knee to allow a runner to score (see video here). We must have really pissed off the no run first inning gods by winning 4 parlays in 7 days.
After taking an 0-2 on Saturday, we’re primed for a bounce-back spot here on Sunday. On top of it, we’re sitting at 149 wins on NRFI bets this year, and I’ve got a special way to celebrate when we hit 150.
If we win ONE bet today, I’m giving away $25, and this is how to enter:
1. Go follow me on Twitter @nd_joyce
2. Like & Retweet this Tweet
3. Comment “NRFI”
Now, hit me up over there on Twitter and let’s celebrate hitting 150 wins together.
Best YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets
First-inning bets are some of the most enjoyable sweats in the MLB betting business. If you want to start making money on your NRFI and YRFI picks, positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper today — new s can get their first month for 70% off.
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres First Inning Bet
Today’s lesson is all about value. The Giants-Padres NRFI odds opened at -105 on DraftKings, and by the time I wrote this, it already jumped to -130/-135 at most books. So, we’re REALLY getting some value saving 25-30 points.
San Fran has Alex Cobb starting, who has a very respectable 16-9 record on NRFI chances this season. Cobb is sporting his best strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2019 (3.6 K/BB) and has already cashed a no run first inning against the Padres once this year. He’s riding a back-to-back NRFI wins, let’s make it three in a row.
Seth Lugo has been pretty good in 2023. How good? 17-4 on NRFIs this season good. He’s in the middle of a NRFI heater, riding a three-game NRFI streak. Lugo has already NRFI’d the Giants once this year and has held them to a career .212 average and has yet to allow a homer.
Best NRFI Pick Today: Giants Padres for -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox First Inning Bet
Last night, the Tigers just took Mike Clevinger to pound town. Nothing to say. Tip your cap and move on.
But much like Pick 1, this line gave us even MORE value. BetRivers opened this NRFI line at +100. Give me two woeful offenses at plus-money odds, and I’m eating it up.
The pitching matchup in this game is oddly palatable: Tarik Skubal versus Michael Kopech.
Kopech is coming off a tough start against the Orioles, but Baltimore has been beating up on everyone lately. Obviously, the Tigers are basically the anti-Orioles. Detroit is No. 8 in strikeouts this season, whiffing 1,232 times already. Kopech isn’t Randy Johnson in his prime, but he does have five games with 9 or more strikeouts this season. Overall, Kopech is 18-7 on NRFI chances this season and his splits against the Tigers look decent in a limited sample. He’s held them to a .158 average, recorded 11 strikeouts and has already NRFI’d Detroit once earlier this season.
Skubal missed part of the season but has won 7 of his 10 no run first inning opportunities, and he’s been racking up the strikeouts lately (23 in last 3 games). The White Sox have the 10th-most strikeouts in baseball this season, so we could be in for a quick bottom half of the inning.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Tigers-White Sox for +100 at BetRivers
Sunday’s YRFI/NRFI Parlay
We’re getting some serious value on both of these as singles, and, undoubtedly, we’re getting some tasty odds on the parlay as well.
DraftKings won’t stop giving us 50% profit boosts, and we’re not going to stop using them now. Bet the singles at the books I mentioned earlier, but build this NRFI parlay on DraftKings and pump it all the way up to +364.
Now, let’s do the thing where we win both bets and have DraftKings give us back more money than we put in.
