Happy Fourth of July! We’ve got a loaded slate of baseball action, with games going on from late in the morning until late at night. In today’s column, we’ll hone in on two games: Braves-Guardians and Blue Jays-White Sox, both of which won’t get underway until the late slate. Without further ado, let’s dive into the best NRFI/YRFI bets and picks for today’s action.
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Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians YRFI
Can we ever leave the Atlanta Braves off a YRFI card? The Braves are the best team in baseball at putting runs on the board early, as they have done so in 42.7% of their first innings. They’ll line up against RHP Shane Bieber tonight, which is driving the price down, as the public still likely sees Bieber as an elite pitcher.
Despite what the public may think, Bieber has struggled this year. He owns a 3.48 ERA and 4.70 xERA and has given up more than his share of home runs (12) and expected home runs (13.3) — unsurprisingly, he makes a great Dinger Tuesday target. That damage could easily come in the first inning.
Even if the Braves can’t get on the board early, the Cleveland Guardians will get a chance as well. The Guardians only score a first-inning run 28.8% of the time, but they’ll benefit from taking on the inexperienced LHP Kolby Allard. Further, even though Cleveland’s rate slots in at a relatively low number, we get raw odds of 71.5% when we combine it with Atlanta’s, far better than the -120 (54.6%) from BetMGM.
Best YRFI Pick: Braves-Guardians -120 at BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox YRFI
I’ve got my eye on another game from today’s card. We’ll lock in a wager on the late slate with this one. Although both the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox will start well-known pitchers in RHP Chris Bassitt and RHP Lucas Giolito, respectively, the two have combined for relatively unimpressive numbers.
Let’s dive into their xERA and xHRs. Bassitt’s 4.06 ERA is unsustainably low relative to his 4.51 xERA. Likewise, Giolito’s 3.53 ERA is much lower than his 4.19 xERA. Giolito ranks 10th among all pitchers in xHR allowed (16.1) while Bassitt ranks 27th (13.5). It only takes one swing to cash a YRFI bet, and both pitchers have been vulnerable to the long ball.
These offenses haven’t been super efficient this year, especially early in games. Toronto ranks only 14th in YRFI% (29.4%), much higher than 25th-ranked Chicago (24.4%). However, both teams have been underperforming their expected stats. Toronto’s weighted on-base average (.325) slots in slightly below its expectation (.332), as does Chicago’s (.302 to .306). These offenses will benefit from positive regression eventually — why not tonight?
Best YRFI Pick: Blue Jays-White Sox -110 at BetMGM
