The Los Angeles Angels will host the Minnesota Twins in L.A. tonight on ESPN+ as both teams look to assert themselves in tight divisional races. The Twins lead the AL Central, but only by a 2.5-game margin, while the Angels rank third in the AL West but trail the leaders by only four games. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Saturday’s Twins-Angels action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re trusting a high-powered Angels offense.
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Best Twins-Angels Bet & Prediction: Fly with the Angels
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins: +100 | Los Angeles Angels: -120
Over 8.5: -120 | Under 8.5: +100
Neither the Minnesota Twins nor Los Angeles Angels are trotting their best starting pitchers out onto the mound. The Twins will use RHP Louie Varland (1-0), a 25-year-old with only nine starts to his name and a 4.30 ERA through four starts and 23 innings pitched this season. The Angels will start LHP Patrick Sandoval (3-2) who owns a solid 3.22 ERA. However, advanced statistics aren’t friendly to either pitcher — Varland owns a 4.59 xERA and Sandoval owns a 4.37 xERA. Varland ranks last among Minnesota’s pitchers in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score (51), slightly worse than Sandoval (54.3).
The Angels have more than an edge on the mound. Their offense also outranks the Twins’ by a solid margin. The Angels rank an impressive seventh in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .334. The Twins rank a good-but-not-great 15th at .326. Worse, their team OPS dips from an average of .714 to just .657 when they face left-handed pitching. In contrast, the Angels’ solid average OPS of .751 dips barely to .748 when they face right-handed pitching. Los Angeles’ OPS also ticks up to .796 when they play at home, far better than Minnesota’s awful road OPS of .650.
But you shouldn’t necessarily slam the Angels on full-game markets just because of the two advantages we’ve discussed — their bullpen could easily fumble the bag. Instead, let’s target a wager on the first half (or first five innings) markets. The Angels rank fourth in runs per first five innings (3.41) while the Twins rank a lowly 17th (2.56). The Angels are 4-3-1 in the first five with Sandoval on the mound this year, and two of those losses came against teams ranked top-10 in xwOBA. Minnesota’s offense isn’t of the same caliber, so it’s wise to fade them here.
Let’s head to DraftKings Sportsbook for this one. Both new and returning s can get a 25% profit boost on today’s MLB slate, so if you haven’t signed up yet, there’s no time like the present to take advantage of both today’s promotion and the standard offer of $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 moneyline wager. Let’s trust the Angels to deliver in the first half of tonight’s game at odds of -130 via DraftKings.
Best Twins-Angels MLB Bet: Angels F5 ML -130 at DraftKings
