The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels again early Sunday afternoon. The Blue Jays took the first two games of the series and have allowed a total of two runs. They’ll look to conclude the sweep on Sunday in the first game of the slate. Let’s dig into today’s Angels-Blue Jays odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Angels-Blue Jays Betting Pick & Prediction: Trust in Shohei Ohtani
Angels-Blue Jays Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Angels: +160 | Blue Jays: -220
Angels +1.5: -120 | Blue Jays -1.5: +100
Over 9: -110 | Under 9: -110
The Los Angeles Angels are a sizeable underdog, in part because of a slight disadvantage on the mound. They’ll start LHP Tyler Anderson, whose 5.23 ERA and 4.74 xERA leave much to be desired. The Blue Jays will start RHP Jose Berrios, whose impressive 3.40 ERA isn’t as impressive when you consider his 4.62 xERA. Although Toronto’s edge appears much larger when looking at the standard metrics, the expected numbers still favor the Blue Jays, albeit by a slimmer margin.
The primary source of Toronto’s edge stems from the disparity between these offenses. Although the Angels rank fifth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, as a team, that ranking depends almost entirely upon two players. Only two batters are individually outperforming the team’s xwOBA of .335 by more than 0.1: Shohei Ohtani (.437) and Mike Trout (.391). With Trout injured, the L.A. offense is much less scary. The Blue Jays rank a close sixth in xwOBA at .331 but aren’t missing any key pieces.
Perhaps the most notable trend heading into Sunday’s contest is what Shohei Ohtani has done against Berrios and other RHPs. Ohtani has 16 career at-bats against Berrios, seven of which ended in hits (.438), all of which went for extra bases. Ohtani has recorded four doubles and three home runs against Berrios, including a double this year. He has also feasted against RHPs this season to the tune of 48 extra-base hits and 30 home runs. While that kind of production sounds unsustainable, Ohtani’s wOBA of .440 just barely comes in ahead of his .437 xwOBA.
Bettors should take advantage of Ohtani’s good form and previous success against Berrios. BetMGM was taking action on Ohtani over 1.5 total bases at +110 (47.6%) for Saturday morning’s game. I was targeting -110, but BetMGM has it even better at -105. That makes it a full-unit play.
Let’s just hope the Blue Jays don’t intentionally walk Ohtani multiple times as they did on Saturday.
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Best Angels-Blue Jays MLB Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 or Better
